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The Madden Curse: Real Phenomenon or Statistical Fallacy?

Football Player
  • 23 Jun 2016
Ben Chowdhury Author Staff
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Every year since 1999, the Madden NFL video game cover has featured an NFL star player from the previous year, similar to an athlete being featured on the Wheaties box. Fans have noticed a trend where these star players end up playing worse or even getting injured the following year. Hence the idea of a “Madden Curse,” and a subset of fans who are adamantly opposed to their favorite players being featured on the cover.

What does this have to do with statistics? Well, there is a concept in statistics called "reversion to the mean." Reversion to the mean is the idea that if we observe an extreme event (e.g. a surprisingly strong NFL season), we can expect the following event to be closer to the average (e.g. the season following a particularly strong NFL season will be less impressive). This might explain why players featured on the Madden cover generally do worse the following year.

GRONK. SPIKE.

Introducing the cover of #Madden17! pic.twitter.com/iCZUwIAuYO

— EA SPORTS Madden NFL (@EAMaddenNFL) May 12, 2016

The player’s reversion to the mean does not indicate that they are actually playing worse than they normally do, it’s just that we raised our expectations of them! We can look at a similar phenomenon at the team level. Historically, football teams that do very well (e.g. records of 14-2, 15-1, or 16-0) typically do worse the following season.

This concept relies on there being some randomness to the events. If an NFL season were purely the result of skill, then we would always expect the following season to be as good as the previous one (barring injury or other external factors). But as we all know, there is some luck (or randomness) involved in most human endeavors, and as a result we are all susceptible to reversion to the mean.

The good news is that reversion to the mean applies to extremely bad events as well. So, if you did particularly poorly on a recent exam (compared to similar exams you have taken), keep your spirits up because most likely you will do better on the next one!

Food for thought: Why do you think that when teams fire their coach, they usually improve? Does reversion to the mean play a role here? Can you think of any other situations where reversion to the mean plays a meaningful role? Let us know in the comments!

Want to know more about statistics and other business concepts? HBX CORe will teach you the basics of Business Analytics, Economics, and Financial Accounting using Harvard Business School’s renowned case-based methodology! Gain confidence in the fundamentals of business with HBX CORe.

Learn more about HBX CORe

About the Author

Ben is a member of the HBS Online Course Delivery Team and works on the Economics for Managers course for the Credential of Readiness (CORe) program. He has a background in economics and physics and is interested in all things related to statistics and modeling human behavior.
 
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We offer self-paced programs (with weekly deadlines) on the HBS Online course platform.

Our platform features short, highly produced videos of HBS faculty and guest business experts, interactive graphs and exercises, cold calls to keep you engaged, and opportunities to contribute to a vibrant online community.

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No, all of our programs are 100 percent online, and available to participants regardless of their location.

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All programs require the completion of a brief application. The applications vary slightly from program to program, but all ask for some personal background information. You can apply for and enroll in programs here. If you are new to HBS Online, you will be required to set up an account before starting an application for the program of your choice.

Our easy online application is free, and no special documentation is required. All applicants must be at least 18 years of age, proficient in English, and committed to learning and engaging with fellow participants throughout the program.

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No, Harvard Business School Online offers business certificate programs.

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We also allow you to split your payment across 2 separate credit card transactions or send a payment link email to another person on your behalf. If splitting your payment into 2 transactions, a minimum payment of $350 is required for the first transaction.

In all cases, net Program Fees must be paid in full (in US Dollars) to complete registration.

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After enrolling in a program, you may request a withdrawal with refund (minus a $100 nonrefundable enrollment fee) up until 24 hours after the start of your program. Please review the Program Policies page for more details on refunds and deferrals. If your employer has contracted with HBS Online for participation in a program, or if you elect to enroll in the undergraduate credit option of the Credential of Readiness (CORe) program, note that policies for these options may differ.

 

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