Skip to Main Content
HBS Online
  • Courses
    Open Courses Mega Menu
    • Business Essentials
      • Credential of Readiness (CORe)
      • Business Analytics
      • Economics for Managers
      • Financial Accounting
    • Leadership & Management
      • Leadership Principles
      • Management Essentials
      • Negotiation Mastery
      • Organizational Leadership
      • Strategy Execution
      • Power and Influence for Positive Impact
      • Leadership, Ethics, and Corporate Accountability
    • Entrepreneurship & Innovation
      • Entrepreneurship Essentials
      • Disruptive Strategy
      • Negotiation Mastery
      • Design Thinking and Innovation
      • Launching Tech Ventures
    • Strategy
      • Strategy Execution
      • Business Strategy
      • Economics for Managers
      • Disruptive Strategy
      • Global Business
      • Sustainable Business Strategy
    • Finance & Accounting
      • Financial Accounting
      • Leading with Finance
      • Alternative Investments
      • Sustainable Investing
    • Business in Society
      • Sustainable Business Strategy
      • Global Business
      • Sustainable Investing
      • Power and Influence for Positive Impact
      • Leadership, Ethics, and Corporate Accountability
    • All Courses
  • For Organizations
    Open For Organizations Mega Menu
    • Corporate Learning
      Help your employees master essential business concepts, improve effectiveness, and expand leadership capabilities.
    • Academic Solutions
      Integrate HBS Online courses into your curriculum to support programs and create unique educational opportunities.
    • Need Help?
      • Frequently Asked Questions
      • Contact Us
    • Black, Latinx, and underrepresented minority professionals
      Pathways to Business

      Stories designed to inspire future business leaders.

  • Insights
    Open Insights Mega Menu
    • Business Insights Blog
      • Career Development
      • Communication
      • Decision-Making
      • Earning Your MBA
      • Entrepreneurship & Innovation
      • Finance
      • Leadership
      • Management
      • Negotiation
      • Strategy
    • All Topics
    • Sample Business Lessons and E-Books

      Gain new insights and knowledge from leading faculty and industry experts.

    • Free Guide

      Learn how to formulate a successful business strategy.

  • More Info
    Open More Info Mega Menu
    • Learning Experience
      Master real-world business skills with our immersive platform and engaged community.
    • Certificates, Credentials, & Credits
      Learn how completing courses can boost your resume and move your career forward.
    • Learning Tracks
      Take your career to the next level with this specialization.
    • Financing & Policies
      • Employer Reimbursement
      • Payment & Financial Aid
      • Policies
    • Connect
      • Student Stories
      • Community
    • Need Help?
      • Frequently Asked Questions
      • Request Information
      • Support Portal
    • Apply Now
Login
My Courses
Access your courses and engage with your peers
My Account
Manage your account, applications, and payments.
HBS Home
  • About HBS
  • Academic Programs
  • Alumni
  • Faculty & Research
  • Baker Library
  • Giving
  • Harvard Business Review
  • Initiatives
  • News
  • Recruit
  • Map / Directions
HBS Online
  • Courses
  • Business Essentials
  • Leadership & Management
  • Entrepreneurship & Innovation
  • Strategy
  • Finance & Accounting
  • Business in Society
  • For Organizations
  • Insights
  • More Info
  • About
  • Support Portal
  • Media Coverage
  • Founding Donors
  • Leadership Team
  • Careers
  • My Courses
  • My Account
  • Apply Now
  • …→
  • Harvard Business School→
  • HBS Online→
  • Business Insights→

Business Insights

Harvard Business School Online's Business Insights Blog provides the career insights you need to achieve your goals and gain confidence in your business skills.

 
Filter Results Arrow Down Arrow Up

Topics

Topics

  • Accounting
  • Analytics
  • Business Essentials
  • Business in Society
  • Career Development
  • Communication
  • Community
  • ConneXt
  • Decision-Making
  • Earning Your MBA
  • Entrepreneurship & Innovation
  • Finance
  • Leadership
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • Negotiation
  • News & Events
  • Productivity
  • Staff Spotlight
  • Strategy
  • Student Profiles
  • Technology
  • Work-Life Balance

Courses

Courses

  • Alternative Investments
  • Business Analytics
  • Business Strategy
  • CORe
  • Design Thinking and Innovation
  • Disruptive Strategy
  • Economics for Managers
  • Entrepreneurship Essentials
  • Financial Accounting
  • Global Business
  • Launching Tech Ventures
  • Leadership Principles
  • Leadership, Ethics, and Corporate Accountability
  • Leading with Finance
  • Management Essentials
  • Negotiation Mastery
  • Organizational Leadership
  • Power and Influence for Positive Impact
  • Strategy Execution
  • Sustainable Business Strategy
  • Sustainable Investing
Subscribe to the Blog
*
Please complete this required field.
Email must be formatted correctly.
Please complete all required fields.
RSS feed

Filters

Topics

Topics

  • Accounting
  • Analytics
  • Business Essentials
  • Business in Society
  • Career Development
  • Communication
  • Community
  • ConneXt
  • Decision-Making
  • Earning Your MBA
  • Entrepreneurship & Innovation
  • Finance
  • Leadership
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • Negotiation
  • News & Events
  • Productivity
  • Staff Spotlight
  • Strategy
  • Student Profiles
  • Technology
  • Work-Life Balance

Courses

Courses

  • Alternative Investments
  • Business Analytics
  • Business Strategy
  • CORe
  • Design Thinking and Innovation
  • Disruptive Strategy
  • Economics for Managers
  • Entrepreneurship Essentials
  • Financial Accounting
  • Global Business
  • Launching Tech Ventures
  • Leadership Principles
  • Leadership, Ethics, and Corporate Accountability
  • Leading with Finance
  • Management Essentials
  • Negotiation Mastery
  • Organizational Leadership
  • Power and Influence for Positive Impact
  • Strategy Execution
  • Sustainable Business Strategy
  • Sustainable Investing
Subscribe to the Blog
*
Please complete this required field.
Email must be formatted correctly.
Please complete all required fields.
RSS feed

7 Financial Forecasting Methods to Predict Business Performance

Professional on laptop using financial forecasting methods to predict business performance
  • 21 Jun 2022
Michael Boyles Author Contributors
tag
  • Accounting
  • CORe
  • Finance
  • Financial Accounting

Much of accounting involves evaluating past performance. Financial results demonstrate business success to both shareholders and the public. Planning and preparing for the future, however, is just as important.

Shareholders must be reassured that a business has been, and will continue to be, successful. This requires financial forecasting.

Here's an overview of how to use pro forma statements to conduct financial forecasting, along with seven methods you can leverage to predict a business's future performance.

What Is Financial Forecasting?

Financial forecasting is predicting a company’s financial future by examining historical performance data, such as revenue, cash flow, expenses, or sales. This involves guesswork and assumptions, as many unforeseen factors can influence business performance.

Financial forecasting is important because it informs business decision-making regarding hiring, budgeting, predicting revenue, and strategic planning. It also helps you maintain a forward-focused mindset.

Each financial forecast plays a major role in determining how much attention is given to individual expense items. For example, if you forecast high-level trends for general planning purposes, you can rely more on broad assumptions than specific details. However, if your forecast is concerned with a business’s future, such as a pending merger or acquisition, it's important to be thorough and detailed.


Free E-Book: A Manager's Guide to Finance & Accounting

Access your free e-book today.

DOWNLOAD NOW

Forecasting with Pro Forma Statements

A common type of forecasting in financial accounting involves using pro forma statements. Pro forma statements focus on a business's future reports, which are highly dependent on assumptions made during preparation⁠, such as expected market conditions.

Because the term "pro forma" refers to projections or forecasts, pro forma statements apply to any financial document, including:

  • Income statements
  • Balance sheets
  • Cash flow statements

These statements serve both internal and external purposes. Internally, you can use them for strategic planning. Identifying future revenues and expenses can greatly impact business decisions related to hiring and budgeting. Pro forma statements can also inform endeavors by creating multiple statements and interchanging variables to conduct side-by-side comparisons of potential outcomes.

Externally, pro forma statements can demonstrate the risk of investing in a business. While this is an effective form of forecasting, investors should know that pro forma statements don't typically comply with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). This is because pro forma statements don't include one-time expenses—such as equipment purchases or company relocations—which allows for greater accuracy because those expenses don't reflect a company’s ongoing operations.

7 Financial Forecasting Methods

Pro forma statements are incredibly valuable when forecasting revenue, expenses, and sales. These findings are often further supported by one of seven financial forecasting methods that determine future income and growth rates.

There are two primary categories of forecasting: quantitative and qualitative.

Quantitative Methods

When producing accurate forecasts, business leaders typically turn to quantitative forecasts, or assumptions about the future based on historical data.

1. Percent of Sales

Internal pro forma statements are often created using percent of sales forecasting. This method calculates future metrics of financial line items as a percentage of sales. For example, the cost of goods sold is likely to increase proportionally with sales; therefore, it’s logical to apply the same growth rate estimate to each.

To forecast the percent of sales, examine the percentage of each account’s historical profits related to sales. To calculate this, divide each account by its sales, assuming the numbers will remain steady. For example, if the cost of goods sold has historically been 30 percent of sales, assume that trend will continue.

2. Straight Line

The straight-line method assumes a company's historical growth rate will remain constant. Forecasting future revenue involves multiplying a company’s previous year's revenue by its growth rate. For example, if the previous year's growth rate was 12 percent, straight-line forecasting assumes it'll continue to grow by 12 percent next year.

Although straight-line forecasting is an excellent starting point, it doesn't account for market fluctuations or supply chain issues.

3. Moving Average

Moving average involves taking the average—or weighted average—of previous periods⁠ to forecast the future. This method involves more closely examining a business’s high or low demands, so it’s often beneficial for short-term forecasting. For example, you can use it to forecast next month’s sales by averaging the previous quarter.

Moving average forecasting can help estimate several metrics. While it’s most commonly applied to future stock prices, it’s also used to estimate future revenue.

To calculate a moving average, use the following formula:

A1 + A2 + A3 … / N

Formula breakdown:

A = Average for a period

N = Total number of periods

Using weighted averages to emphasize recent periods can increase the accuracy of moving average forecasts.

4. Simple Linear Regression

Simple linear regression forecasts metrics based on a relationship between two variables⁠: dependent and independent. The dependent variable represents the forecasted amount, while the independent variable is the factor that influences the dependent variable.

The equation for simple linear regression is:

Y = BX + A

Formula breakdown:

Y⁠ = Dependent variable⁠ (the forecasted number)

B = Regression line's slope

X = Independent variable

A = Y-intercept

5. Multiple Linear Regression

If two or more variables directly impact a company's performance, business leaders might turn to multiple linear regression. This allows for a more accurate forecast, as it accounts for several variables that ultimately influence performance.

To forecast using multiple linear regression, a linear relationship must exist between the dependent and independent variables. Additionally, the independent variables can’t be so closely correlated that it’s impossible to tell which impacts the dependent variable.

New call-to-action

Qualitative Methods

When it comes to forecasting, numbers don't always tell the whole story. There are additional factors that influence performance and can't be quantified. Qualitative forecasting relies on experts’ knowledge and experience to predict performance rather than historical numerical data.

These forecasting methods are often called into question, as they're more subjective than quantitative methods. Yet, they can provide valuable insight into forecasts and account for factors that can’t be predicted using historical data.

6. Delphi Method

The Delphi method of forecasting involves consulting experts who analyze market conditions to predict a company's performance.

A facilitator reaches out to those experts with questionnaires, requesting forecasts of business performance based on their experience and knowledge. The facilitator then compiles their analyses and sends them to other experts for comments. The goal is to continue circulating them until a consensus is reached.

7. Market Research

Market research is essential for organizational planning. It helps business leaders obtain a holistic market view based on competition, fluctuating conditions, and consumer patterns. It’s also critical for startups when historical data isn’t available. New businesses can benefit from financial forecasting because it’s essential for recruiting investors and budgeting during the first few months of operation.

When conducting market research, begin with a hypothesis and determine what methods are needed. Sending out consumer surveys is an excellent way to better understand consumer behavior when you don’t have numerical data to inform decisions.

Access Your Free E-Book: A Manager's Guide to Finance and Accounting | Download Now

Improve Your Forecasting Skills

Financial forecasting is never a guarantee, but it’s critical for decision-making. Regardless of your business’s industry or stage, it’s important to maintain a forward-thinking mindset—learning from past patterns is an excellent way to plan for the future.

If you’re interested in further exploring financial forecasting and its role in business, consider taking an online course, such as Financial Accounting, to discover how to use it alongside other financial tools to shape your business.

Do you want to take your financial accounting skills to the next level? Consider enrolling in Financial Accounting—one of three courses comprising our Credential of Readiness (CORe) program—to learn how to use financial principles to inform business decisions. Not sure which course is right for you? Download our free flowchart.

About the Author

Michael Boyles is a content marketing specialist and contributing writer for Harvard Business School Online.
 
All FAQs

Top FAQs

How are HBS Online courses delivered?

+–

We offer self-paced programs (with weekly deadlines) on the HBS Online course platform.

Our platform features short, highly produced videos of HBS faculty and guest business experts, interactive graphs and exercises, cold calls to keep you engaged, and opportunities to contribute to a vibrant online community.

Are HBS Online programs available in languages other than English?

+–

We expect to offer our courses in additional languages in the future but, at this time, HBS Online can only be provided in English.

All course content is delivered in written English. Closed captioning in English is available for all videos. There are no live interactions during the course that requires the learner to speak English. Written English proficiency should suffice.

Do I need to come to campus to participate in HBS Online programs?

+–

No, all of our programs are 100 percent online, and available to participants regardless of their location.

How do I enroll in a course?

+–

All programs require the completion of a brief application. The applications vary slightly from program to program, but all ask for some personal background information. You can apply for and enroll in programs here. If you are new to HBS Online, you will be required to set up an account before starting an application for the program of your choice.

Our easy online application is free, and no special documentation is required. All applicants must be at least 18 years of age, proficient in English, and committed to learning and engaging with fellow participants throughout the program.

After submitting your application, you should receive an email confirmation from HBS Online. If you do not receive this email, please check your junk email folders and double-check your account to make sure the application was successfully submitted.

Updates to your application and enrollment status will be shown on your Dashboard. We confirm enrollment eligibility within one week of your application.

Does Harvard Business School Online offer an online MBA?

+–

No, Harvard Business School Online offers business certificate programs.

What are my payment options?

+–

We accept payments via credit card, wire transfer, Western Union, and (when available) bank loan. Some candidates may qualify for scholarships or financial aid, which will be credited against the Program Fee once eligibility is determined. Please refer to the Payment & Financial Aid page for further information.

We also allow you to split your payment across 2 separate credit card transactions or send a payment link email to another person on your behalf. If splitting your payment into 2 transactions, a minimum payment of $350 is required for the first transaction.

In all cases, net Program Fees must be paid in full (in US Dollars) to complete registration.

What are the policies for refunds and deferrals?

+–

After enrolling in a program, you may request a withdrawal with refund (minus a $100 nonrefundable enrollment fee) up until 24 hours after the start of your program. Please review the Program Policies page for more details on refunds and deferrals. If your employer has contracted with HBS Online for participation in a program, or if you elect to enroll in the undergraduate credit option of the Credential of Readiness (CORe) program, note that policies for these options may differ.

 

Sign up for News & Announcements


  • • Please complete this required field.
  • • Email must be formatted correctly.
  • • Please complete all required fields.

Subject Areas

  • Business Essentials
  • Leadership & Management
  • Entrepreneurship & Innovation
  • Strategy
  • Finance & Accounting
  • Business & Society

Quick Links

  • FAQs
  • Contact Us
  • Request Info
  • Apply Now
  • Support Portal

About

  • About Us
  • Media Coverage
  • Founding Donors
  • Leadership Team
  • Careers @ HBS Online

Legal

  • Legal
  • Policies
Harvard Business School
Copyright © President & Fellows of Harvard College
  • Site Map
  • Trademark Notice
  • Digital Accessibility